Air base missile attack

(latest updated September 17, 2012, except for the plead)

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

After viewing the video below of a missile attack on a fighter jet on the ground, I wanted to see if the attack could be mapped. Therefore I have looked into what can be found out about the attack, which is supposed to have taken place on March 7, 2012, in Syria.

video originally found uploaded on March 14. to a198123's YouTube channel. 

 
On his blog aviation journalist David Cenciotti has identified the air base, as the Abu Ad Duhour Airbase, 46 km East South-East of Idlib. He has also identified the weapon, that is being prepared in the beginning of the video. It's a 9K115-2 Metis-M with the NATO reporting name AT-13 Saxhorn-2. (I'm guessing Saxhorn is with reference to the shape of its sighting). The fighter jet being targeted is identified as a MiG-23MS. (minor edit on 18/09/2012). 
 

over view of the air base. Site of attack marked with rectangle (left).

.

firing-position of the opposition fighters on the hill (left) - and the plane in front of the hanger (right).

From what I can see, the opposition fighters are preparing the attack somewhere among the buildings in the lower left corner of the image. They then run to the hill (marked), from where they fire the missile.
My reasons to think so are these: In the video there is a glimpse of a road down to the right of the hill. That fits. So does the angle towards the hangar. The direction of the fence between the hill and the hangar also looks right (but the distances can be hard to judge because of the zoom). 
An additional thought: As they arrive to the hill, and start to set up the missile, there is some gunfire. I also see at least one man running from the hangar and to the right. This gives me the idea that the gunfire might be some kind of diversion. That is however pure speculation. 

The distance of 850 meters for the shot was a bit of a surprise to me, but that's what I get from using the measuring tool in Wikimapia. 

Whether the jet was actually hit, or the hit was to the hangar behind it remains unclear - to me anyway.
..

Addition march 15, 2012:
I took a closer look at the route of the men who carried out the attack - and what I've found is indicated in the image below.

aerial of the area where the attack was carried out

The aerial photo is too old for me to be absolutely certain about the route. I have X-marked two buildings, that I cannot exclude completely, as being the half way building. But whether it's the building marked "B", or one of the others, does not change much in the general picture: a group of men meeting up and preparing an anti-tank missile attack in plain sight, and less than 200 meters from the missile launch position.

It all have a very un-military appearance. But if you want to pass for a civilian that would be a good tactic, and the guy testing the tripod seems to know what he's doing. On the other hand, the guy in black seems to have problems carrying the missile without having the strap of the kalashnikov slipping off his shoulder. I imagine something like that would have been solved if they were all trained.

Below: a series of frames with comments.

five frames from the video on a198123's YouTube channel.

update, more resent imagery:

(march 19, 2012, changed march 30, 2013)
  

The blog Open Source GEOINT has (or had) a post, which corroborates my findings about the route and firing position. The access to Open Source GEOINT has since been restricted, but a key element in the corroboration is about the low wall the fighters are running along from 1:03 - 1:09 min. (see frame #2 above). This wall does not appear in the 2004 imagery, which is the most recent in Google Earth, but Open Source GEOINT has/had acquired imagery from October 2010, in which the wall is clearly visible.

 

update, about the MiG:
(march 23, 2012)

From David Cenciotti I have learned that there are things that indicate the MiG was already taken out of service, and that it might have been placed as a decoy. Indicators of this would be, that the afterburner-feathers and the nose have been removed. After comparing the very blurred frames, that I have been able to freeze, to images of MiG-23s I tend to agree (that those are missing). But even if the target turns out to have been of low value, it's still my impression that the video as a whole is not staged.
 

update, more attacks:
(september 17, 2012) 

The Abu Ad Duhour Airbase was reported attacked on the night of August 29th. The reports said that 10 fighter jets were damaged/destroyed on the ground, and that one (MiG-21) was shot down as well. I have mentioned the attack with some links in the post 'Syrian Airforce Unleashed', but a  recent video, documenting damages after the attack, have relevance to this post.
 

damaged MiG-23. Image source: video on شبكة أخبار حلب و إدلب's YouTube channel. Uploaded 16/09/2012.

Yeps, a clear view of a clearly damaged MiG-23 in the same position, and in front of the same hangar, as the one attacked in the March 2012 video.
In theory it could be a different jet, but I think it's safe to assume it's the same MiG-23, that was attacked with the Metis-M missile. It can be seen, that the nose cone is actually there, but it's also clear, that the afterburner feathers have been removed. I don't have the expertise to say if that makes the decoy thesis confirmed though.

The video also shows a group of planes that seemed to have been moved to one side of the airbase. I assume the idea is to show, that the jets have been damaged in the recent attack, but only the one to the fare right have damages, that are clearly visible in the video. 
  

five jets on the ground. I believe the four that still have their tail are MiG-23s. The position of the wings on the jet to the right makes me think it's a MiG-23 too, but less certain. Image source: video on شبكة أخبار حلب و إدلب's YouTube channel. Uploaded 16/09/2012.

More material on the latest attacks/siege of the airbase:
video: Idlib - Abozaor | | Syria Martyrs Brigades - revolutionaries around the airport 16-9
video: Idlib - Abozaor | | clashes battalion Ahrarmarh Numan 09/16/2012
video: Idlib - Abozaor | | process of armor battalion Sunni at the airport 15-9

relevant posts:
- Syrian Airforce Unleashed
- Hama Military Airport
- Syrian Airforce use of the L-39 Albatros
- weapons used on Homs 
- mortar position, Homs - (A similar study)
- Syria: Local photo sources

- any comments or corrections are welcome, either as comments here or to my Twitter account.