Rastan

(latest addition October 7, 2012. Some edting Decamber 11, 2012, except for the plead)

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

Intro:

On May 14. reports came out from Syria that the opposition forces in Rastan had driven the forces of the regime out of the city, and since Rastan is located between Homs and Hama on the strategic M5 highway (See map) it seemed unlikely that the regime would wait long before trying to re-establish the military control.

This post examines some of the video-reports, that have come out from Rastan from mid May and to around the end of July. To this date (December 11, 2012) the opposition forces of Rastan has resisted the government army's attacks, and still maintains the military control of the city, but the attacks are at present still ongoing, and since my last update many many more video-reports have come out from the area. Also what I have looked into during May, June and July is only a small part of the video-reports uploaded from Rastan during this period.

The posts 'Weapons used on Homs' and 'Hama' are compiled posts similar to this, and together they cover a large part of the medium and heavy weapons used by the government army in this conflict.

* note: I originally titled this post "Grad terror, Rastan and Homs". However the section about grad missile use, that started this post, turned to be flawed. And since the post now - due to the added sections - does not focus on that weapon only, I thought the new title would be more fitting.

May 24: Heavy bombardment of the central city:
(re-written october 8, 2012)

From early morning on May 18. reports and videos from Rastan have been telling of a bombardment with rockets. It remains to be seen if this is the first stage of an offensive.

Posted below are three video frames from a video recorded in Rastan and uploaded on May 22. There is a little confusion about the date, because it is said to be recorded on May 23., but I have been able to verify the location. During this 2:53 minute video there are four hits by some kind of artillery (at 0:12, 0:56, 1:30 & 2:04) that's about one every 40 seconds. The first hit is somewhere around here, and all four hits are in what clearly is a residential area.

frames from a video uploaded on May 22 to alrstn's YouTube channel. Judging from the angle of the sun the video is recorded quite early in the morning. This could make the difference between upload-date and date stated in the title a time zone issue.

To me this seems as a terror bombardment aimed at demoralising the general population - the shells/rockets are coming in at a steady rate one by one, and with no apparent military target.
What type of weapon that is being used exactly, I have not been able to find out. In some of the video-reports there is a consistent sound pattern with an explosion about 4 seconds before the sound of the hit. This would mean that what is being fired travels with an average speed below the speed of sound (343 m/s). I don't believe this to be consistent with rockets such as grads. The immediate thought (after I became aware of the sound pattern) was one of the heavy mortars like the M-240. By comparison to other mortars I would guess its muzzle velocity to be somewhere between 300 and 400 m/s. Considering that the speed will drop, and that the grenade travels in a high arch, my estimate is that that is too slow. Also, no fragments of duds have been video-reported.
What have been reported are a dud and fragments of 122 mm artillery shells. These are most likely fired by a D-30 howitzer, which have has a muzzle velocity of around 700 m/s with max propellant load. But since I know, neither the size of the propellant load nor how much the speed drops before it impacts, I won't able to take this any further (on my own).

more videos from Rastan:
23/5/2012 bombardment 2:12 min.
23/5/2012 bombardment 0:51 min.
18/5/2012 bombardment 2:15 min.
18/5/2012 bombardment 0:32 min.

for comparison: an artillery battery of self-propelled howitzers 2S1 and/or 2S3 said to be firing at Hama:
24/5/2012 artillery firing 1:55 min. (link added here 27/5/2012)

* note(added 08/10/2012): this section originally identified the bombardment as being done with grad-missiles. I had to go back on that shortly after, and at that time - for transparency reasons - I left the section unchanged except for a clear notice about it being flawed. As noted below the section title, I have now re-written the section.

Update, May 30: artillery shells

In two videos - uploaded to the same channel as some of the previous videos from Rastan - some more evidence of what is being used to bombard the city is coming out.

Fragment and damages. Frames from this video uploaded to alrstn's YouTube channel on May 26. 2012.

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The first video (see frames above) was uploaded on May 26., and in it the reporter picks up a fragment of at shell, that - in my understanding - has gone through the roof and wrecked the room it entered. There is little doubt that this is a civilian home, and the faces of the to two children that appears gives testimony of what kind of emotional impact this attack have had.

In the second video which was uploaded May 30. an unexploded shell is shown (frames below). This dud very much look like a match to the fragment of May 26. (the frozen frames might not demonstrate this fully, but if you watch the video I believe you'll agree)

The over all shape of the shell. Frames from this video uploaded to alrstn's YouTube channel, May 30. 2012. Video via @HamaEcho.

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Markings on the shell. Frames from the same video as those posted above.

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The camera man has made some close up recordings of the markings on the shell. I'm not going to try to interpret those markings, but the "122" in relatively large types must - in my opinion - be the calibre: 122 mm. My best guess for this is that this is an artillery shell for a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, either the towed version or the self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdika, which I believe to have identified in material video-reported from Hama in May - June 2012.

By this update I am not saying, that this is what was being used in any of the previously linked-to Rastan-videos. This is most likely a minor part of a slowly emerging image of what this city have been - and still is being - subjected to. The extend of some of the destruction is documented in other videos from the same channel.

Posted below for comparison only drawings of a 122 mm artillery shell from Wikipedia:

Drawing of (...) shell used in D-30 gun-howitzers. Authors: Jeffery H. Morgan and Joyce Pittman. From Wikipedia.

* Please notice: Even if this shell didn't detonate as intended, it is not safe to handle. Handling and bringing this shell indoor most likely represents an unnecessary risk of losing one of Rastan's most active reporters.

Bringing image material like this to use is ethically questionable.

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) should not be picked up, and should only be handled by professionals. Anyone else should observe the ARMS guidelines:

- Avoid the area
- Record all relevant information from a safe distance
- Mark the area to warn others
- Seek assistance from the relevant authorities

- link to print-out poster and warning flags in Arabic and English from R.R.M.A. 
(notice updated December 19, 2012)
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Update, June 1: artillery firing position

Frames from a video uploaded June 1. to ebnalrstn2's YouTube channel. Left: the smoke from where the shell struck. Right: the flash from the artillery firing.

A video reporter have filmed an artillery position firing at Rastan from across the dam to the North of the city. It is filmed from a long distance, but there is not mistaking the firing, and the reporter also catches the smoke and dust rising from where the shell struck.

On the map below I've marked a roughly estimated line of fire, and a range of about 2 km.

Aerial from Wikimapia. The arrow is indicating the position of the artillery and the line of fire. Both the video and the position of the artillery was via @markito0171.

In a second video from another reporter a tank position is filmed. Right in the beginning of the video one of the tanks fires its main gun while an other tank turns around and moves to the left of the frame. In the image below is a frame from the beginning of the video and the two tanks mentioned are seen to the left and right of the frame. I believe them to be T-72 models. the vehicle in the middle of the frame is a BMP-1 - an infantry fighting vehicle - that I suspect is damaged, and during the video another  BMP-1 and a T-62 tank enter the frame. Quite a lot of firing from machine guns are heard.

A frame from a video on fnnsyria's YouTube channel uploaded on May 30. 2012.
*note: this video has since been taken down. Another version can be seen here.

* note: while Syria was known to have about 1600 T-72 tanks before this conflict erupted there is no certain knowledge of them having any of the T-80 or T-90 models. But given the difficulty studying details of the tanks in this video I can not exclude those two models with certainty.

Update, June 11: Incendary bombardment?

The image below is made of frames from a video uploaded on June 10. 2012. It is said to show a bombardment of Rastan, and from the effects of the bombs I get the impression that these are not "ordinary" shells. The size of the fires seems larger than what is caused by grenades/shells with high explosives. Therefore I tend to think that these are some kind of incendary bombs.

Stitched together frames from a video originally found on UgaritNews's YouTube channel with upload date 10/06/2012 (video via @Brown_Moses and @TFME_MAUREEN). The video has since been taken down, but can still be seen here.

But what ever kind of bomb/missile is being used here; looking at the size ot the area that they ignite makes it obvious that targets has to be selected carefully for such an attack not to indiscriminate.

Update, June 12: Helicopter gunships:

(with addition June 25.)

Left: frame from a video showing ordnance fragments. Right: a re-constructed outline from the fragment matched to a technical drawing of an AT-2 missile, found here.
@markito0171 was very helpful in this - both with video and identfication.

The frame above to the left is from a video showing ordnance fragments said to have been found in Rastan. The large fragment in front is from an AT-2 Swatter anti tank missile said to have been fired from a helicopter. The tall fragment behind to the left is of an S-5 rocket - also helicopter ammunition. Then in the back there is a fragment from a 122 mm artillery shell (more about this in the May 30 section higher up in this post), in the middle a tail from a rocket assisted 73 mm tank gun grenade, and to the right a tail from a 120 mm mortar shell (not the red model).

The Mil Mi-25 attack helicopter. Source: cropped frame from video uploaded 13/06/2012 to ebnalrstn2's YouTube channel.

It has been reported that the regime uses planes or helicopters to take out the tanks and armoured vehicles captured by the opposition forces. This find and the filmed helicopters seems to correspond with those reports (even if the four dark missiles on this helicopter look more like AT-3s  than AT-2 missiles).

More video reports and comments about the escalating use of attack helicopters can be found in this post by David Cenciotti.

A video uploaded on June 25. 2012 said to be from Daret Izza, North West of Aleppo, showing a fragment that I believe to be from an AT-2 missile too. It has the diameter, the colour and even if the fins are broken off one off  those characteristic tubes are sticking out of this one as well. (video-link via @maikito0171, added June 28.)

* notes (June 25. 2012): the certainty about the identities of weapons models expressed above in this section is an over stretch of my knowledge. Some uncertainty remains. Therefore: the names given here to identify the fragments of helicopter ammunitions are to be understood as rough identifications pointing to the types of weapons used. I do not attempt to distinguish between the different version or variants of these models.

- and about the artillery shell fragment: from comparing to sizes of the other fragments in the video I estimate the shell to be less than 150 mm. This makes 122 mm of which an unexploded model is shown further down a likely calibre, but I can not exclude this particular fragment as being from a 125 mm tank shell or maybe from a 130 mm field gun (such a weapon was maybe-identified in a video some time ago).

Update, July 23: Claims of attacks by Jets (MiG-23):

(+ an additions on July 25. and October 7.)

frame from video with damages to building found on alrstn alrstn's YouTube channel. Uploaded on July 23, 2012.

On July 22. some reports started to appear on Twitter with claims of Rastan and Talbiseh being attacked by planes. Defectors were said to have identified the planes as MiG-23s and the damages were said to be very bad.

I have not seen any clear confirmation of jets being used, but a video might have caught the sound of one. Other videos clearly documents huge damages, and especially one showing a crater indicates that what ever hit had a large amount of explosives. Below I have linked to the videos mentioned. All up-loaded July 22-23.

Video with possible jet-sound (the maybe-sound of jet is in the first seconds of the video)
Video with dust-cloud after a hit

Video with large crater

Video with damage to building

Another video came out from Rastan after those linked to above. It has clear sound of jet as a large explosion occurs. There have also started to come out videos from Aleppo with jets being used against the opposition forces.

Video added July 25: with clear sound of jet as bomb detonate. 

* note: I have not tried to verify location or date of these videos, but the second video (with dust-cloud) is from an earlier verified location in Rastan and the last one has two water-tower looking constructions in the background that I think will be verifiable as those in Rastan.

frame from video uploaded to curse thee's YouTube channel on October 4, 2012.

Video added October 7: a 8:50 min video report uploaded October 4, 2012. What I believe to be a Su-22 is taking 2 runs followed by recordings of a heavy artillery bombardment. The stated location is supported (if not confirmed) by the two water towers, visible at 7:15 min.
The souce videos seems to be from a Rastan channel, and this video is the one with the clearest view of the jet (during this particular clip, I did not see objects that I could use to confirm location - you'll have to decide for yourself).
..

* general note (June 25. 2012): unless other is mentioned; all locations and dates of recordings given of videos are those stated by the up-loaders. Also; this is all to the best of my knowledge, and since I'm no authority in this field I try to present my observations in a way that will allow you to use your own judgement. Please do so.


Related posts on this blog:

- M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus

- Hama

- weapons used on Homs
- mortar position, Homs 

Rastan based YouTube channels:
- قناة alrstn
- قناة تنسيقية الرستن||ebnalrstn2
- Rastantwilight

thanks to @brown_Moses for doing a massive job, listing Syrian YouTube channels here.

- any corrections and additions are welcome. You can leave information as a comment at my twitter account...