Syria L-39 Albatros Syrian Air force.
Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).
In my previous post "Syrian Air-force use of the L-39 Albatros" I finally decided to highlight a recent video showing a clear maybe-bomb drop. The drop occurs at 0:06 min. in the video, and in order to get as much detail as possible for my screen-grabs I chose the highest resolution, switched to full screen view, started the video....and got a surprise:
At 0:02 min. and again at 0:03 min. an object can be seen descending from right to left, and especially the first seems to pass quite close by the plane.
As mentioned this was a bit of a surprise, and I'm uncertain if it has any significance. Therefore I have made an image of each sequence which can be seen below. The images are made by overlaying four frames with the plane in a fixed position, and in both images the view of the plane is from the third frame.
Since the plane moves some distance within that short period, this will not be an absolute accurate depiction, but I think it works to bring attention to what happens.
First occurrence:
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| Four frames overlaid to show descending object at 0:02 min in video uploaded 07/08/2012 to AENNetwork's YouTube channel. |
Second occurrence:
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| Four frames overlaid to show descending object at 0:03 min in video uploaded 07/08/2012 to AENNetwork's YouTube channel. |
Given the closeness to the plane, my immediate thought was, that what can be seen, is something being fired at the plane. But at the same time it obvious, that what ever object it is, that is passing, it would have to be either on the descending part of an arch (if fired from the ground) or to have been fired/launched from a position above the plane.
...or are there more alternatives?
One possibility would then be that what passes are incoming artillery shells. But would it be thinkable to have a plane flying around over an area while it is being shelled?
Another possibility that I can think of is something being fired from another aerial vehicle. That thought, however, requires things like an anti government plane (or drone?). An interesting thought, but with my limited knowledge - and without touching the political implications of such a scenario - I would expect an air-to-air missile to leave a trail of smoke from the motor. I would also think that such a missile would be guided in some way, which, I believe, would result in different looking paths for the objects(?).
It would be interesting to get some opinions on this.
Update, October 8:
This TwitLonger list contains 19 video-reports of an attak on Kafr Nabl. Several of these recordings are of rockets fired from jets. There is some visuel resemblance to the video highlighted in this post, but I don't fint it conclusive. The videos are uploaded on September 27th, and the titles indicate, that the attack took place on that date too.
..
* note: at least in theory this video could be manipulated. Also the objects that I keep seeing as some kind of shell or missile can be something completely different.
Update, October 8:
This TwitLonger list contains 19 video-reports of an attak on Kafr Nabl. Several of these recordings are of rockets fired from jets. There is some visuel resemblance to the video highlighted in this post, but I don't fint it conclusive. The videos are uploaded on September 27th, and the titles indicate, that the attack took place on that date too.
..
* note: at least in theory this video could be manipulated. Also the objects that I keep seeing as some kind of shell or missile can be something completely different.
- all comments and corrections are welcome - either as post-comments here or @bjoernen_hj.
8 comments:
Could it possibly be another jet dropping its payload?
Thanks. I didn't think of that.
It might fit with the images, and I haven't tried to measure it, but to me the horizontal speed of the objects seems to high for them to be a free fall bombs. Another possibility would then be S-5 rockets, but the path of the objects might be too curved for that(?).
Could be unguided rockets fired from pods on the L-39?
I'm not sure if by "the L-39" you mean the L-39 that is seen in the video or if you are referring to the model in general(?).
To answer both: then I'm convinced the two objects are not something fired from the visible L-39. But relevant to this is a photo that I have just added to the previous post about the L-39:
https://twitpic.com/aha15h
It shows the L-39ZA firing rockets that look a lot like S-5s, so something like that fired from another plane might be possible. What I'm uncertain about is (as mentioned in the previous reply) if the path of the objects are too curved. Another thing that makes me sceptical of this possibility is that if there was another plane flying around, close enough to fire S-5 rockets, I would expect the camera man to have caught it in the recording too.
Good catch. You can barely see it on the video and when I looked for it, it appeared to come from the rear of the L-39. If you hadn't posted the pic above, I would have guessed that it was a flare. Flares are used to confuse heat-seeking anti-aircraft missiles, but here they could be used simply to confuse FSA gunners firing from ZU-23's.
However, since your pic shows it coming from in front of the aircraft, which I honestly cannot see on the video, I am at a loss to explain it.
Have you seen this video, which is purportedly of an actual hit on a Syrian AF aircraft? The video claims that the stricken plane is a MiG, but I cannot tell. I'd be interested in hearing other people's opinions. To my knowledge, if this video is genuine, it would be the first downing of a Syrian AF fixed aircraft.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyQn_x6HQwQ&feature=plcp
Thank for sharing your thoughts. About seeing the objects moving from right to left of the L-39, (if you don't know already) then a way is to use the space botton to start and stop the video in very short intervals. This should make it possible to see the objects in the positions I've shown.
About the video in the link you posted:
It's too blurred for me to do other that give some suggestions. But assuming it is a recent video from Syria and that it hasn't been manipulated, then it seems to show a n aerial vehicle with a trail of smoke that seems to be more than normal exhaust fumes. I actually saw some kind of graphic illustration of the loses inflicted on the government army by the FSA during the last week or so in Aleppo, and it claimed they had destroyed one MiG-21.However this video is from a Douma media (which doesn't necessarily means that it was recorded there, but doesn't the distorted voice say Douma?) and I suspect it has been blurred by the re-poster, which usually is a bad sign. I also think I might see a tail that would make it more likely to be something like a Mi-17 helicopter. All of this suggests not to draw any conclusion from that video - but you could see if you could find the original upload.
Thank you for those insights. In general, that YT channel posts reliable videos from Syria, but I have spotted a few that are possible fakes. This Douma video, I think, is suspect.
As I am sure you have heard, there was a confirmed downing of a MiG 23 today. Several videos were posted, including a video of the actual downing and another video of the interrogation of the pilot. This has been widely covered in Arab media as an important news story. The Syrian government admitted that it lost a plane, but denied that it was lost to hostile fire. It is very clear that a plane went down.
All this stands in contrast to the Douma video. I have not seen any other videos relating to that incident. And there has been no news coverage and no claim by the FSA. So I am inclined to believe that the Douma video is probably fake or perhaps was the result of an FSA supporter misunderstanding what he was taping.
You are welcome. And yes, I know about the reported downing of a MiG-23 (there is an update to my previous post with some of the material).
About the Douma-video, then I just found another upload that calls it a helicopter here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT4BgODYy_4&feature=plcp
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