Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please
don't skip any of the notes. Also before you decide what to think of my
writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).
After having viewed this video, titled to be recorded November 6, in
Aleppo, Syria, I decided to see if it could be verified from aerials:
I struggled for some time without being able to pinpoint the location, but when I asked tweeter @markito0171 for help, he pointed out, that in some parts of the video a red cube is visible in the lower left side of the frame, and that that red cube is placed on the top of the monument in the centre of the Blleramoun roundabout in the North Western part of Aleppo - the exact location given in the title of the video btw.
The information can be confirmed by checking against photos from the area linked-to in Google Earth/Panoramio. Thanks a lot Mark.
Another thing I was interested in doing, was to see if the distance of the RPG-7 shot could be measured. I think I managed.
In Wikipedia the effective range of the RPG-7 is listed as 200 meter. This shot is more than double of that, and - still according to Wikipedia - at 400 meter the hit probability is set as low as 9%. I believe it helps a little, that the grenade is fired from an elevated position, but still, this has to be a very optimistic shot.
I have - of course - tried to see, if it could be determined, whether the shooter actually managed to take out the BMP or not, but I haven't been able to come to any conclusion.
The flash from the explosion, visible at 0:19 min, seems to have the right direction horizontally, but it could look like it is occuring some distance in front of the vehicle.
However, the view point moves a little, and the frame I got, showing the flash, is blurred by dust and smoke, which makes it hard to get a certain handle on the positions.
At the end of the recording it looks like the BMP is covered in smoke, but again it's impossible for me to tell if it's from the BMP being on fire or from the grenade detonating alone or a smoke screen produced by the BMP itself.
For now I'm leaning towards a miss, but I'm fare from sure. Maybe later we'll know more.
..
Other studies on this blog:
- Air base missile attack
- Mortar position, Homs
- Helicopter attack on farm outside Daraa
- A Belgian tank killer in Douma?
.
If anyone has anything to add, please leave a comment below, or reach me at @bjoernen_hj.
I struggled for some time without being able to pinpoint the location, but when I asked tweeter @markito0171 for help, he pointed out, that in some parts of the video a red cube is visible in the lower left side of the frame, and that that red cube is placed on the top of the monument in the centre of the Blleramoun roundabout in the North Western part of Aleppo - the exact location given in the title of the video btw.
The information can be confirmed by checking against photos from the area linked-to in Google Earth/Panoramio. Thanks a lot Mark.
Another thing I was interested in doing, was to see if the distance of the RPG-7 shot could be measured. I think I managed.
|
| screen shot from Google Earth. The dark rectangle at the firing position is placed there by me, only to make it clear where the arrow starts. I you want to you can try to examine the locations. The rooftop has some very significant characteristics. |
In Wikipedia the effective range of the RPG-7 is listed as 200 meter. This shot is more than double of that, and - still according to Wikipedia - at 400 meter the hit probability is set as low as 9%. I believe it helps a little, that the grenade is fired from an elevated position, but still, this has to be a very optimistic shot.
I have - of course - tried to see, if it could be determined, whether the shooter actually managed to take out the BMP or not, but I haven't been able to come to any conclusion.
The flash from the explosion, visible at 0:19 min, seems to have the right direction horizontally, but it could look like it is occuring some distance in front of the vehicle.
However, the view point moves a little, and the frame I got, showing the flash, is blurred by dust and smoke, which makes it hard to get a certain handle on the positions.
|
| cropped frames form the video. Left: cross-hair points to the BMP. Right: cross-hair points to the flash (added 25/12/2012). |
At the end of the recording it looks like the BMP is covered in smoke, but again it's impossible for me to tell if it's from the BMP being on fire or from the grenade detonating alone or a smoke screen produced by the BMP itself.
For now I'm leaning towards a miss, but I'm fare from sure. Maybe later we'll know more.
..
Other studies on this blog:
- Air base missile attack
- Mortar position, Homs
- Helicopter attack on farm outside Daraa
- A Belgian tank killer in Douma?
.
If anyone has anything to add, please leave a comment below, or reach me at @bjoernen_hj.
2 comments:
I always assumed the backblast of an RPG was deadly out to 30m, yet it hardly seemed to phase the cameraman standing directly behind it
I don't know exactly at what distance the RPG backblast is dangerous, but 30 meter seems too fare for it to be lethal. I have found a mentioning of "a dangerous backblast area of between 15 to 20 meter" (with no definition of what "dangerous" means).
From measuring the aerial, I estimate a distance of about 12 meter from the camera to the shooter, and I would say, that the camera is a little to the left of the direct line of the backblast.
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