A Belgian tank killer in Douma?

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

Frame from video uploaded 27/06/2012 to  ktaeb alfaroq's YouTube channel. (via @troublejee )
* note: the video from which I originally took the above frame has been taken down. Another version can be found here.

(latest updated: July 17, 2012).
The image above is a frame from a video that was tweeted to me by @troublejee a few days ago. The title of the video says that the men presenting their arms before rolling out in their pickups are the brigade of the Martyrs of Douma, and the fact that this parade of opposition to the regime took place at a distance of about 10 km from Damascus seemed the obvious message meant to be conveyed.

Some people however who have developed a more bizarre focus will lose all interest in such displays of force and defiance as soon as a tube like the one above enters the scene. At least someone unable to immediately determine what model this maybe tube-type anti tank grenade launcher is.

Well, probably an exaggeration, but something definitely had to be checked since any anti tank weapons different from RPG-7s in the hands of the opposition until now has been the exception. Also it has been rumoured via photo journalist Austin Tice that shipments of RPG-29s were on their way to the opposition. This could be an indication those had actually arrived.

re-constructed side view sketch.

But no. That was not the case. Instead something equally interesting might be in the hand of that opposition fighter. The sketch above is a loosely reconstructed side-view I made using the significant details from the video-image to be able to reject Google's candidates. I have noted what I believed the components to be, but as can be seen I wasn't really sure of anything. And what really had me confused was that I didn't realize that the component close to the fighter's shoulder is a shoulder-rest and not a front grip. That kept the RPG-29 alive as a candidate for a while even if that would mean the muzzle was pointed backward in the image. But still; it just wouldn't fit.

Instead I was somewhat surprised to see that the M20 "Super Bazooka" - a model from around 1950 - and it's variants seemed to match the build of the weapon best.

From top: RPG-29 form russianguns.ru, M20B2 form the Internet Movie Firearms database and RL-83 Blindicide from ЭНЦИКЛОПЕДИЯ ОРУЖИЯ И БОЕПРИПАСОВ.

In the vertical line up above it can be seen that while the RPG-29 - like what seems to be the trend among more modern models - has its pistol grip in front of the assembly of the launchers two parts the M20 has both its pistol grip and shoulder-rest on the rear part.

Still, both shape of muzzle and shoulder-rest were all wrong, and what I suspected as being the rear sight and some thin stick-like component mounted on the front part was unaccounted for as well.
But then; among the variants of the Bazooka Wikipedia mentions a Belgian development called Blindicide RL-83 (tank-killer). This model - still according to Wikipedia - was designed in the 1950s, and if its blast shield is removed it seems to have all the components placed and shaped right (see last in the line up above and also the image below).

The RL-83 in "action" without blast shield in the movie Wild Geese. Source: the Internet Movie Firearms Database.

I find this a quite convincing match, but given the quality of the material and also that my knowledge is limited to what I have been finding on-line the possibility exists that I haven't found the right model.

But since I do believe I've found the match I couldn't help noticing that the RL-83 has been among the weapons of the Israeli army. And what caused me to take special notice of this is that an Israeli version of another Belgian weapon - the FN FAL - has been spotted in the hands of Syrian opposition fighters in photos or videos in at least two or three cases.

A frame from  a report by France24. The said-to-be Syrian opposition sniper is holding a FAL in the Israeli variant.

On the Firearm Blog the Israeli FAL and what it's presence might indicate was mentioned in a post on May 30. this year:

"The modus operandi of countries supplying weapons to rebels is to supply weapons that would be associated with a third party and not able to be traced back to them. This gun was probably supplied or sold to the rebels by a neighboring Arab state from an old stockpile of captured Israeli weaponry. The FN FAL was Israel's standard service rifle during the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur War." (from The Firearm Blog, May 30. 2012, via @RogueAdventurer )

A qoute like that makes it hard not to consider a similar explanation for the maybe-Belgian/Israeli maybe-RL-83 tank killer's turning up in a Damascus suburb. But of course; in both cases the numbers are fare to low to claim proof of a pattern. Still an oddity though.
  

* note: the location and date of the video has not been verified, but - in relation to this specific subject - as long as the video was actually recorded inside Syria within the last year or so the speculations still applies.

* note 2: ...that is of course only if the weapon is actually working and not some antiquity brought along for increased visual effect (added July 1. 2012).


Update I: Reply from the RL-83 manufacturer:

(added July 2. 2012)

Damien Spleeters (aka @damspleet ) a Belgian journalist who specializes in Belgian weapons and their proliferation took the trouble to write to the company who produced the RL-83 to ask them if the weapon in the image on top of this post could be an RL-83 Blindicide. And they answered:

"The weapon shown in the linked photograph could be a Blindicide RL-83, but it is impossible to confirm that, given the quality of the image.
We have checked all our records, going back to 1970, and we have no record of any sales of any ammunition or weapons to Syria.
The Blindicide was produced at Mecar during the 1960s and 1970s, and it was in service in a number of countries in Europe and the Middle East at that time. Apart from some training ammunition in the 1980s, there have been no major sales in the last 30 years." (e-mail from Mecar to Damien Spleeters. July 2. 2012)

Thank you Damien! And thanks also to the company for checking records and answering this quickly. That is - I've been told - out of the ordinary.

As such this post neither accuses Mecar of supplying Syria with weapons nor of having sometime in the past sold the maybe-RL-83 in the video to Syria. On the other hand I have to add a few comments to their answer:

First of all "could be a Blindicide RL-83" is I think a quite accommodating answer, and I agree that a 100% certain identification of the weapon in the video will be impossible. Something close to certainty might be achieved by analysis of the relative measures of the filmed weapon and having them matched to the blueprint of the RL-83. But surely that would be a time-consuming task, and it is not something I'm going to attempt.

Besides that the answer does actually contain some uncertainties that might or might not be relevant to speculations about how (if) an RL-83 has turned up in the hands of a Syrian opposition fighter.

However, since I'm not going to pursue this any further; if more questions are to be asked somebody else will have to do it.


Update II: A little from the archives:

(added July 5. 2012)

Today (July 5. 2012) I got a little extra note from Damien Spleeters about possible sales of the Blindicide RL-83 to countries in the region:

"on the 4th of January 1973, the Belgian government issued an export license to MECAR for the export of 4 Blindicide 83 mm to the Lebanese army."(e-mail from Damien Spleeters. July 5. 2012)

Mr. Spleeters pointed out that such a license does not prove that the sale went through nor does it tell whether more (or other) sales were made or not. And he added:

"It might probably be just a sample shipment. But I had only data for the 1969-1974 period."(e-mail from Damien Spleeters. July 5. 2012)

Thanks again. This to me is an interesting glimpse into the world of arms dealings, and while it's still important to remember that the suggested model of the weapon in the video has not been confirmed this certainly adds some perspective. And just if it wasn't already clear: it definitely makes the point that more nearby countries could have had the Blindicide in their weaponry.


Update III: A second video:
(added July 16. 2012)

frame from a video on Farouk Homs YouTube channel. Uploaded 16/07/2012. (via @markito0171)

The frame above is from a newly uploaded video with the title:

"B-10 operator Abo Al-abed - one of the members of the Al Faroug Brigade in Qusair - during the battle"(many thanks to @troublejee for help with translation)

It could very well be that the (nick) name of this man is Abo Al-abed, and it is also possible that he is a B-10 operator (several videos claim to show B-10s operated by the Al Faroug brigade) but if so; in this case he has replaced his usual weapon with something else. And this other weapon to me looks very much like it could be a Blindicide RL-83.

As such this video too is too blurred to identify with certainty what is seen(see note 3), but have a look at the odd shaped component underneath at the rear-end of the tube. From my googling I haven't seen anything like that on other shoulder held launchers. Also; the rear sight - which is blurred out in this frame - is visible during the video in a position aligned with the front grip/mono pod. And - without knowing about all existing shoulder held launchers - from the images I've seen, the concept of attaching the rear sight and the mono-pod/front grip to the same metal band appears to be another of the RL-83s characteristics.

Comparison of relative positioning of shoulder rest pistol grip and mono pod. Please notice that the lower image have been flipped horizontally. This changes the way the front and rear sights apprear. Image sources: top: video on Farouk Homs YouTube channel. Bottom  image from ЭНЦИКЛОПЕДИЯ ОРУЖИЯ И БОЕПРИПАСОВ.

To try to further examine this material; what I have come up with is to try to make a comparison of the positioning of the main components of the weapon (see image above). I think it looks right, but the image quality does not allow for me to say that the positioning is a match - only that this does not contradict the weapon in the video being an RL-83.
What can also be measured is that the length of the weapon is about the same as the height of the man operating it. And with a length of the Blindicide RL-83 of 1.7 meter that does not conflict either. However from the look of it; the larger Blindicide RL-100 with its 1.885 meter seems to be out of the question.

I find that these videos support each other in strengthening the case of Blindicide presence in Syria and I also think they give reason to consider if more than one are in use. But given both the quality and the sourcing of the material this still isn't conclusive.


* note 1: Qusair is placed south south-west of Homs quite close to the Lebanese border and Douma is about 10 km to the north of Damascus. The distance between these to places is about 120 km.
* note 2: ...and a distance of 120 km would mean that even if both videos are "true" they could still be showing the same weapon. (added July 17. 2012)

* note 3: Even if this YouTube video was sharp and close up on the weapon it would only suffice to - maybe - identify the weapon. If the video also included more of the surroundings the location might be verified too, but still the time would be uncertain and so would the actual allegiance of the fighters. (added July 17. 2012)


Update IV: A close up:
(added July 27. 2012)

A third video has come out with a weapon that seems to match the Blindicide RL-83. This time it was passed to me by the incredibly active British blogger Brown Moses, who keeps an eye on the development of the weaponry of the Syrian opposition fighters and continuously posts about it here.

frame from a video on Farouk Homs YouTube channel. Uploaded 27/07/2012. I have stretched the frame horizontally in an attempt to restore it to what i think is its original ratio.

The title of the video says it shows a parade in Quasir of a brigade belonging to the Al Faroug umbrella called the Al'adiats Brigade(see note 1). This would make it a brigade in the same area as in the July 16. update above. Another thing that ties this video to the previous is that the video is uploaded to the same YouTube channel.
What is different this time is that in this video the weapon passes by the camera quite closely, which makes it possible to see some of what I believe to be the unique details of the Blindicide: the front sight and the rear with the metal band-attachment of the odd looking component underneath. And the details match.

Again I can not say if this is the very same weapon as in one or both of the other videos, but given the stated locations the possibility of it being the same as that in the previous video seems obvious. If so; then - according to the July 16. video - it should be able to fire...something. The actual locations however remain unverified as do the actual dates, but in my mind only theoretical doubt exists that in this case the weapon we see is a Blindicide RL-83.



* note 1: Al'adiats is a reference to the Quran and means Running Horses (thanks again to @troublejee for translation).
* note 2: in hindsight it occurs to me that the July 16. video could give the impression of having been made to demonstrate the Blindicide rather than being recorded during an actual confrontation with government forces. But even if that should be the case the weapon would still be there.
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Related posts on this blog:

- weapons used on Homs

- mortar position, Homs
- air base missille attack

- any comments or corrections are welcome, either as comments here or to my Twitter account.

Hama

(latest addition October 10, 2012. Some editing December 11, except for the plead)

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

Intro:
.
During the spring of 2012 the participation in protests and demonstrations in Hama reached a level claimed (by a Hama activist) to be among the highest in the country. It's a claim, that I am not able to verify, but this video tells that the protests were of conciderable size.

As the protests and the government's counter actions turned into armed conflict, reports gave the impression, that the government army was about to lose control of the city, but starting in the late May 2012, the government army started a large scale crack-down on the city.
Following the crack-down, the government forces kept a firm military grip on the city, which (to my knowledge) have been maintained until early December, where some reports appeared, telling of fightings in Northern suburbs. At this date (December 11, 2012) it is not clear if this is a serious attempt by the opposition forces to contest the government military's hold on the city.
 
This post was earlier titled 'attack on Hama' and the focus is on the use of military. The post is not a result of a continued monitoring of the development in Hama, rather, it's only where I have compiled the few Hama related video-reports from Hama and it's surrounding region, that I looked into from late May to early July 2012. This is with exception of the post 'Hama Military Airport', which to some degree supplement this post.

The posts 'Weapons used on Homs' and 'Rastan' are compiled posts similar to this, and together they cover a large part of the heavier weapons used by the government army in this conflict(intro was added 29/09/2012 and edited December 11).

May 24: 2S1, 122 mm self-propelled artillery

(updated on June 1. and 2.)

Stitched together frames from a video on Mohamadfreedom92's YouTube channel. Uploaded May 24. 2012. *note: there are five artillery pieces, but one is hardly visible behind the tent from this angle. Video and help identifying the weapon via @markito0171.

On May 24. a video came out. It is said to show an artillery position firing at Hama and it is my best guess that what the video is showing is five of the 2S1 Gvozdika. These are self-propelled 122 mm howitzers and during the 1:55 min video the position fires six times. 

In Wikipedia Syria is said to have about 400 of these, and according to images released on February 10. 2012 by U.S. Department of State such weapons are known to have been deployed by the Syrian regime, though at that time in a different location.

Frame from video on Mohamadfreedom92's YouTube channel. The ID on the 2S1s in this video is a very strong match(see note). Uploaded May 26. 2012.

From another video uploaded on May 26. there is more evidence of this weapon being used by the regime. The Image above is a frame from that video and in it a number of 2S1s are being moved on trailers. The date of this recording is unknown and according to the title of the video (and Google translate) this movement has to do with Homs refinery. But still - to me - this video both substantiates the identification of the weapons and gives an idea of what kind of military force is being deployed against the opposition.

In the image below to the left is a 2S1, and to the right - for comparison - I have placed a photo of the larger calibre 2S3 Akatsiya. The 2S3 is mounted with a 152.4 mm howitzer and is considerably heavier than the 2S1 (28 vs. 16 ton). My main basis for the identification is that the light makes it possible to see that the hull-sides of some of the pieces have an unbroken vertical wall above the tracks. This matches the 2S1 better. Also, only the 2S1 have two hatches on top of the turret.
The best id-view will be to freeze a frame at about 1:26 min. in the video from the firing position.

Left a Polish 2S1 seen from an angle that resembles that of the vehicles in the video. Image from Wikipedia. Right: for comparison, a 2S3 Akatciya. Source: Dishmodels.ru.

Video uploaded 24/06/2012 showing self propelled howitzers (firing at 1:41) said to be positioned in a Hama suburb. In this case too I believe they match the online images I find of the 2S1. (link added June 24.).
video: title: Syrian Army's self propelled howitzers firing on residents of Hama (via @Johnyrocket69).

* note: I originally used the term "certain" about this ID, but that was stretching my knowledge too fare. What I can say is that all the visual details correspond, which makes it hard to imagine this not a 2S1 or one of its variants(note added 14/12/2012).
.

Update, May 28: BMP-1, ZPU-4 and troops

(corrected may 29. (no BMP-2))

On May 27. the Syrian regime closed in on the city (Hama), especially the North Eastern neighbourhood, Al-Arbaeen, which was surrounded from about 5 am and all through to the evening. Several other neighbourhoods were targeted to and according to activists snipers were positioned on roof-tops preventing the population from moving - and from helping those wounded by shelling.

According to those same sources on May 28. the assault was still ongoing, and a number of videos are coming out showing some of the deployments of regime forces.

The videos together show the high level of deployment of military in the city (in discord with the Annan six point plan), and below I have looked at four of these:

Left: a frame from a video showing what I believe to be a BMP-1. Right: a frame from video showing more BMP-1s. Both videos uploaded to UgaritNews's Youtube channel on May 28. 2012. videos via @markito0171.
*note: these videos have since been taken down, but another version of the one to the left can be seen here.

The BMP-1s, that can be seen in the frame above to the left, have been used extensively by the regime through out this conflict, and before 2011 the Syrian Army was believed to have around 2000 of these. It's armed with a 73 mm 2A28 Grom low pressure smooth-bore gun that fires rocket assisted grenades. In images I have seen fragments of two different models of these grenades. The most common model together with a BMP-1 can be seen here, and the other here.

The frame above to the right, has two more BMP-1s passing through. They both seems to have an unusual arrangement above the rear hatches. It might be meant give the rear-end the same ski-tip profile as the front. It would make some sense, but it's just a thought on my part. In the last part of the video one of the BMPs also gives a fine demonstration of the turrets capabilities.

In the image below to the left is a truck mounted ZPU-4. It's a four barrel 14.5 mm heavy machine gun originally intended for anti aircraft use, and this video corroborate reports from @HamaEcho that these weapons had been seen by this source for the first time only a few days ago. However back on April 11. David Cenciotti had a video posted on his blog allegedly showing opposition forces firing at a regime helicopter. The weapon used is not visible but an expert makes a very convincing case identifying it as the ZPU-4.

The frame to the right gives an impression of what kind of deployment of troops this also involves.

Left: a frame from a video showing a ZPU-4 mounted on a truck. Right: a frame from video showing troops. Videos uploaded on May  27. & 28. 2012. to UgaritNews's Youtube channel. videos via @markito0171.
*note: these videos have since been taken down, but other versions can be seen here and here.

A group of UN observers is actually stationed in Hama, but I have no reports of what they might have done during these attacks.

* note (June 26. 2012): In order to make it possible for you to judge for youselves I should present my reasons for stating that the weapon in the left frame "is" a ZPU-4: the image is rather unsharp but the profile of the weapon is still reasonablely clear and everything about the weapon matches the photo in the linked-to Wikipedia description: the disc-shaped body, the large ammunition boxes at a 45 degree angle on the side and the gunner seat.
All four barrels can not be seen, but twin barrel heavy machine guns usually don't have them on top of each other, which makes it hard to imagine why this should be the case here. Finally I can't decide if the dark blur above the disc is part of the background or something mounted on the weapon. But if it is something mounted examples of that can be seen in the Wikipedia description as well.

Update, June 3: Damages

The YouTube channel of mhmad1mhmad was brought to my attention by the twitter account @Brown_Moses. This video channel has collected documentation from Hama of damages to homes and people in the city during this recent attack. I have looked into a few of them:

Frames from video uploaded to mhmad1mhmad's channel on May 23. 2012.

In this video (frames above) a grenade from an RPG-7 has been fired at this building. In the left frame the reporter is holding a sustainer motor of such a grenade with the stabilizer still attached. In the background the entry hole is visible. In the frame to the right the damages to the top of the cupboard illustrate what happens when a grenade like this enters a room and explodes: shrapnel is blown through the room and will cause wounding or death.

The video leaves no doubt that this is - or was - the home of a family, and the mattresses on the floor tell their own story.

Frames from video uploaded to mhmad1mhmad's channel on May 23. 2012.

The damages in this video (frames above) appears to have been caused by a 73 mm tank gun grenade. Fragments of the kind placed on the floor have been very common during this conflict, and there is no mistaking what kind weapon they are from. These grenades are ammunition for the BMP-1 (the vehicle shown in two of the videos from the previous section).

Again the room is clearly one of a family home, and in both this and the case above the damages are not the result of a long range bombardment. The weapons, that - according to the ordnance fragments - have caused these damages, give direct fire and have maximum ranges of about 900 m for the RPG-7, and about 1300 m for the 73 mm grenade. Therefore the assumption must be that these homes were hit deliberately.

* note (June 19. 2012): the 73 mm tank gun grenade can also be fired by the SPG-9 recoilless rifle.

Frames from video uploaded to mhmad1mhmad's channel on May 28. 2012.

The frames above are from documentation of damages that seems to have been caused by something of heavier calibre. There are no fragments shown in the video, but the damages are to the top level of the building and in a place that can only have been hit by something coming at a descending angle. From the damages in the right frame I get the impression that the descending angle was around 20 degrees. I believe this makes it either an artillery shell, a tank shell or rocket artillery.

A possible answer might be found if the elevation-angle of the artillery in the top most section of this post can be established.

The last two frames point to a mortar - one more of the very commonly used weapons in this conflict.

When I look at the video with the damaged satellite dish (left frame below) the impression I get is that of a grenade detonating and fragmenting a little above floor-level somewhere inside the walls of a terrace/balcony. This time too; the shell will have to have come at a descending angle, but in this case - as fare as I can see - without penetrating the surface. Some cleaning might have been done, but the holes in a couple of metal barrels seems to give an indication of where the round hit. And the dish - even if it might have been moved -  in a very easily understood way tells what you'll be hit by if such a mortar round explodes near you.

The fragment in the frame to the right is shown in another video. It is a tail (or stem) from a mortar shell, most likely a fragmentation round too. This particular tail is from a 120 mm round, but what calibre exploded on the balcony is not certain. From the amount of damages I would guess that it was either a 82 mm or a 120 mm but I'm unable to substantiate this in any solid way.

Sources: Left: frame from this video. Right: frame from this video. Both uploaded to mhmad1mhmad's channel on May 28. 2012.

* note (June 26. 2012): about my summaries of what these videos of damages are showing: I can see that I have been leaving out a "seems to" some places. But to clarify: even if I'm convinced these videos aren't staged; from an objective point of view that possibility can not be excluded. 

the Al-Qubair Massacre (June 6, 2012):

(note of June 7, 2012, with material added July 27)

Reports have started to come out of a massacre on June 6th in Hama country side. At present the extend of what has happened is still being documented. I will not try to cover it, but a short statement was released by Syrian Revolution General Commission on the morning of June 7. I'm afraid it - as a preliminary account - is accurate.

This article by Der Spiegel from July 23. is written on basis of eyewitnesses and is the most thorough examination I have seen of what happened on June 6. It also is able to gather information relevant to some of the speculations that have circulated since.

Update, June 28: Aerial bombardment:

(material added July 5.)

Left: a frame from this video. Centre and right: frames from this video. Both videos from imadomar2's YouTube channel. *note: the thought-to-be bomb in the centre and right frames could look like it's made of concrete.
* note: these videos have since been taken down.

On June 27 a video was brought to my attention by @markito0171. The video is said to show a bomb that have been dropped by an aerial vehicle, and on the same channel another video is showing a similar object (see frames above).

The area where the video is said to be recorded is in the Hama country side and is called Jabal Shahshabo (Shahshabo mountains). It's an area just north of the Madiq Castle and to the West of Hama. According to Syrian activist @HamaEcho the stated locations is not contradicted by the dialect of the reporter. The date remains without corroboration.

The videos claims that the objects have diameters of (about) 50 cm, but it's hard to get a handle on the size by watching the video. However when comparing to the shadow of the camera man it becomes clear that the objects are quite large.

Video uploaded June 29: showing a large crater: Title: "FNN Hama Residents describe the shelling of al Hwaija by military aircrafts 28 6 2012"

Video uploaded July 1: one more crater: Title "Syria, al-Hwaija Village A large crater created by one of Assad's missiles that hit the village 28 6 (GT)"

Video uploaded July 1: fragments: Title: "1 7 Hwaiyjeh Al Hawija Hama, Hama Ugarit missile that fell on the city projectile weighs about a ton (GT)"
* note: this video has since been taken down.

Video uploaded July 1: fragments: Title: "FNN Hama Qal'aat al Madeeq The remnants of a rocket that fell near the demonstration in the city"

Video uploaded July 4: one more man deep crater: Title "4 7 Izz Al Deen Homs Homs Ugarit Izz al-Din, a huge hole by one of the shells that fell (GT)"
* note: this video has since been taken down.

In this post the blogger Brown Moses has made a closer study of the finds and what they might be.

* note: I can not entirely exclude that the two videos of July 1. are of the same fragment. To be sure I'd have to make a closer study of the material.

* note 2: the "(GT)"  tells that the text has been translated from Arabic by Google Translate.
* note 3 (added 26/09/2012): in the image caption I suggest one of the bombs are of concrete. After having seen more of these OFAB 250-270 bombs, I am almost sure that's not the case (other of these, that were clearly not of concrete, had similar rough surfaces).

Update, July 11: Cluster bombs(?):

The images below is from two videos uploaded on July 10. According to the title these were dropped from an aerial vehicle, and according to Syrian activist @HamaEcho who tweeted the video it is recorded in the Jabal Shahshabo area west of Hama.
In the first video what appears to be cluster bomb submunitions can be seen. And in the second video what appears to be a cluster bomb dispenser (or container) is shown.

Left: submunitions on the ground can be compared to the hand reaching for one of them. Centre: markings on one of the submunitions. Right: more markings.
Image source: this video uploaded on July 10. to AFAMIA1985 YouTube channel.

Left: the nose of what must be a dispenser/container-bomb that have carried the submunitions. Centre: markings. Right: the tail.
Image source: this video uploaded on July 10. to AFAMIA1985 YouTube channel.

As can be seen the darkness makes it hard to get a clear view of the over all shape of the dispenser, but in order to better judge what on-line images that might be a match I made the sketch below. The sketch is probably too compact, but it is only meant to give an idea of the principal shape. 

A quick sketch of the principal shape of the dispenser by me.
The "20.65" marking seen in the video is placed in the position where the video makes me believe it should be found.
From the video it seems that a there is a number below the horizontal line. It is possibly a two digit number and could look like a "1" followed by either an "8" a "3" or a "2", but I could easily be wrong here. (by the video reports from around October 10. it is clear the the two digit number below the line is "12".

British blogger Brown Moses has driven a further investigation of this case, and it seems an identification is very close to have been made. The findings can be studied in this post.

.

video of the same case, recorded in daylight. Uploaded 13/07/2012 with the title: 'hero speaks about cluster bombs at Mount Shahshabo'(added 15/07/2012).

Around October 10, 2012 a number of new cases of cluster munitions have been video reported: from Idlib, Aleppo and the surroundings of Damascus. One case was also reported from Abu Kamal in late July.

The reports have been collected by Brown Moses in these posts(added 15/10/2012).

..

Caution: In relation to the videos in this post, please notice: even if bombs or other munitions didn't explode as intended, they are not safe to handle.

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) should not be picked up, and should only be handled by professionals. Anyone else should observe the ARMS guidelines:

- Avoid the area
- Record all relevant information from a safe distance
- Mark the area to warn others
- Seek assistance from the relevant authorities

- link to print-out poster and warning flags in Arabic and English from R.R.M.A. 
(notice updated December 19, 2012)
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* general note: all locations and dates of recordings, given of videos, are those stated by the up-loaders. Also this is all to the best of my knowledge, and since I'm no authority in this field, I try to present my observations in a way, that will allow you to apply your own judgement. Please do so.

related posts on this blog:
- Hama Military Airport
- Rastan

- weapons used on Homs
- mortar position, Homs
- M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus - (Hama on the map)

- any corrections and additions are welcome. You can leave information as a comment or you can contact me via twitter.

Rastan

(latest addition October 7, 2012. Some edting Decamber 11, 2012, except for the plead)

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

Intro:

On May 14. reports came out from Syria that the opposition forces in Rastan had driven the forces of the regime out of the city, and since Rastan is located between Homs and Hama on the strategic M5 highway (See map) it seemed unlikely that the regime would wait long before trying to re-establish the military control.

This post examines some of the video-reports, that have come out from Rastan from mid May and to around the end of July. To this date (December 11, 2012) the opposition forces of Rastan has resisted the government army's attacks, and still maintains the military control of the city, but the attacks are at present still ongoing, and since my last update many many more video-reports have come out from the area. Also what I have looked into during May, June and July is only a small part of the video-reports uploaded from Rastan during this period.

The posts 'Weapons used on Homs' and 'Hama' are compiled posts similar to this, and together they cover a large part of the medium and heavy weapons used by the government army in this conflict.

* note: I originally titled this post "Grad terror, Rastan and Homs". However the section about grad missile use, that started this post, turned to be flawed. And since the post now - due to the added sections - does not focus on that weapon only, I thought the new title would be more fitting.

May 24: Heavy bombardment of the central city:
(re-written october 8, 2012)

From early morning on May 18. reports and videos from Rastan have been telling of a bombardment with rockets. It remains to be seen if this is the first stage of an offensive.

Posted below are three video frames from a video recorded in Rastan and uploaded on May 22. There is a little confusion about the date, because it is said to be recorded on May 23., but I have been able to verify the location. During this 2:53 minute video there are four hits by some kind of artillery (at 0:12, 0:56, 1:30 & 2:04) that's about one every 40 seconds. The first hit is somewhere around here, and all four hits are in what clearly is a residential area.

frames from a video uploaded on May 22 to alrstn's YouTube channel. Judging from the angle of the sun the video is recorded quite early in the morning. This could make the difference between upload-date and date stated in the title a time zone issue.

To me this seems as a terror bombardment aimed at demoralising the general population - the shells/rockets are coming in at a steady rate one by one, and with no apparent military target.
What type of weapon that is being used exactly, I have not been able to find out. In some of the video-reports there is a consistent sound pattern with an explosion about 4 seconds before the sound of the hit. This would mean that what is being fired travels with an average speed below the speed of sound (343 m/s). I don't believe this to be consistent with rockets such as grads. The immediate thought (after I became aware of the sound pattern) was one of the heavy mortars like the M-240. By comparison to other mortars I would guess its muzzle velocity to be somewhere between 300 and 400 m/s. Considering that the speed will drop, and that the grenade travels in a high arch, my estimate is that that is too slow. Also, no fragments of duds have been video-reported.
What have been reported are a dud and fragments of 122 mm artillery shells. These are most likely fired by a D-30 howitzer, which have has a muzzle velocity of around 700 m/s with max propellant load. But since I know, neither the size of the propellant load nor how much the speed drops before it impacts, I won't able to take this any further (on my own).

more videos from Rastan:
23/5/2012 bombardment 2:12 min.
23/5/2012 bombardment 0:51 min.
18/5/2012 bombardment 2:15 min.
18/5/2012 bombardment 0:32 min.

for comparison: an artillery battery of self-propelled howitzers 2S1 and/or 2S3 said to be firing at Hama:
24/5/2012 artillery firing 1:55 min. (link added here 27/5/2012)

* note(added 08/10/2012): this section originally identified the bombardment as being done with grad-missiles. I had to go back on that shortly after, and at that time - for transparency reasons - I left the section unchanged except for a clear notice about it being flawed. As noted below the section title, I have now re-written the section.

Update, May 30: artillery shells

In two videos - uploaded to the same channel as some of the previous videos from Rastan - some more evidence of what is being used to bombard the city is coming out.

Fragment and damages. Frames from this video uploaded to alrstn's YouTube channel on May 26. 2012.

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The first video (see frames above) was uploaded on May 26., and in it the reporter picks up a fragment of at shell, that - in my understanding - has gone through the roof and wrecked the room it entered. There is little doubt that this is a civilian home, and the faces of the to two children that appears gives testimony of what kind of emotional impact this attack have had.

In the second video which was uploaded May 30. an unexploded shell is shown (frames below). This dud very much look like a match to the fragment of May 26. (the frozen frames might not demonstrate this fully, but if you watch the video I believe you'll agree)

The over all shape of the shell. Frames from this video uploaded to alrstn's YouTube channel, May 30. 2012. Video via @HamaEcho.

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Markings on the shell. Frames from the same video as those posted above.

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The camera man has made some close up recordings of the markings on the shell. I'm not going to try to interpret those markings, but the "122" in relatively large types must - in my opinion - be the calibre: 122 mm. My best guess for this is that this is an artillery shell for a 122 mm D-30 howitzer, either the towed version or the self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdika, which I believe to have identified in material video-reported from Hama in May - June 2012.

By this update I am not saying, that this is what was being used in any of the previously linked-to Rastan-videos. This is most likely a minor part of a slowly emerging image of what this city have been - and still is being - subjected to. The extend of some of the destruction is documented in other videos from the same channel.

Posted below for comparison only drawings of a 122 mm artillery shell from Wikipedia:

Drawing of (...) shell used in D-30 gun-howitzers. Authors: Jeffery H. Morgan and Joyce Pittman. From Wikipedia.

* Please notice: Even if this shell didn't detonate as intended, it is not safe to handle. Handling and bringing this shell indoor most likely represents an unnecessary risk of losing one of Rastan's most active reporters.

Bringing image material like this to use is ethically questionable.

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) should not be picked up, and should only be handled by professionals. Anyone else should observe the ARMS guidelines:

- Avoid the area
- Record all relevant information from a safe distance
- Mark the area to warn others
- Seek assistance from the relevant authorities

- link to print-out poster and warning flags in Arabic and English from R.R.M.A. 
(notice updated December 19, 2012)
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Update, June 1: artillery firing position

Frames from a video uploaded June 1. to ebnalrstn2's YouTube channel. Left: the smoke from where the shell struck. Right: the flash from the artillery firing.

A video reporter have filmed an artillery position firing at Rastan from across the dam to the North of the city. It is filmed from a long distance, but there is not mistaking the firing, and the reporter also catches the smoke and dust rising from where the shell struck.

On the map below I've marked a roughly estimated line of fire, and a range of about 2 km.

Aerial from Wikimapia. The arrow is indicating the position of the artillery and the line of fire. Both the video and the position of the artillery was via @markito0171.

In a second video from another reporter a tank position is filmed. Right in the beginning of the video one of the tanks fires its main gun while an other tank turns around and moves to the left of the frame. In the image below is a frame from the beginning of the video and the two tanks mentioned are seen to the left and right of the frame. I believe them to be T-72 models. the vehicle in the middle of the frame is a BMP-1 - an infantry fighting vehicle - that I suspect is damaged, and during the video another  BMP-1 and a T-62 tank enter the frame. Quite a lot of firing from machine guns are heard.

A frame from a video on fnnsyria's YouTube channel uploaded on May 30. 2012.
*note: this video has since been taken down. Another version can be seen here.

* note: while Syria was known to have about 1600 T-72 tanks before this conflict erupted there is no certain knowledge of them having any of the T-80 or T-90 models. But given the difficulty studying details of the tanks in this video I can not exclude those two models with certainty.

Update, June 11: Incendary bombardment?

The image below is made of frames from a video uploaded on June 10. 2012. It is said to show a bombardment of Rastan, and from the effects of the bombs I get the impression that these are not "ordinary" shells. The size of the fires seems larger than what is caused by grenades/shells with high explosives. Therefore I tend to think that these are some kind of incendary bombs.

Stitched together frames from a video originally found on UgaritNews's YouTube channel with upload date 10/06/2012 (video via @Brown_Moses and @TFME_MAUREEN). The video has since been taken down, but can still be seen here.

But what ever kind of bomb/missile is being used here; looking at the size ot the area that they ignite makes it obvious that targets has to be selected carefully for such an attack not to indiscriminate.

Update, June 12: Helicopter gunships:

(with addition June 25.)

Left: frame from a video showing ordnance fragments. Right: a re-constructed outline from the fragment matched to a technical drawing of an AT-2 missile, found here.
@markito0171 was very helpful in this - both with video and identfication.

The frame above to the left is from a video showing ordnance fragments said to have been found in Rastan. The large fragment in front is from an AT-2 Swatter anti tank missile said to have been fired from a helicopter. The tall fragment behind to the left is of an S-5 rocket - also helicopter ammunition. Then in the back there is a fragment from a 122 mm artillery shell (more about this in the May 30 section higher up in this post), in the middle a tail from a rocket assisted 73 mm tank gun grenade, and to the right a tail from a 120 mm mortar shell (not the red model).

The Mil Mi-25 attack helicopter. Source: cropped frame from video uploaded 13/06/2012 to ebnalrstn2's YouTube channel.

It has been reported that the regime uses planes or helicopters to take out the tanks and armoured vehicles captured by the opposition forces. This find and the filmed helicopters seems to correspond with those reports (even if the four dark missiles on this helicopter look more like AT-3s  than AT-2 missiles).

More video reports and comments about the escalating use of attack helicopters can be found in this post by David Cenciotti.

A video uploaded on June 25. 2012 said to be from Daret Izza, North West of Aleppo, showing a fragment that I believe to be from an AT-2 missile too. It has the diameter, the colour and even if the fins are broken off one off  those characteristic tubes are sticking out of this one as well. (video-link via @maikito0171, added June 28.)

* notes (June 25. 2012): the certainty about the identities of weapons models expressed above in this section is an over stretch of my knowledge. Some uncertainty remains. Therefore: the names given here to identify the fragments of helicopter ammunitions are to be understood as rough identifications pointing to the types of weapons used. I do not attempt to distinguish between the different version or variants of these models.

- and about the artillery shell fragment: from comparing to sizes of the other fragments in the video I estimate the shell to be less than 150 mm. This makes 122 mm of which an unexploded model is shown further down a likely calibre, but I can not exclude this particular fragment as being from a 125 mm tank shell or maybe from a 130 mm field gun (such a weapon was maybe-identified in a video some time ago).

Update, July 23: Claims of attacks by Jets (MiG-23):

(+ an additions on July 25. and October 7.)

frame from video with damages to building found on alrstn alrstn's YouTube channel. Uploaded on July 23, 2012.

On July 22. some reports started to appear on Twitter with claims of Rastan and Talbiseh being attacked by planes. Defectors were said to have identified the planes as MiG-23s and the damages were said to be very bad.

I have not seen any clear confirmation of jets being used, but a video might have caught the sound of one. Other videos clearly documents huge damages, and especially one showing a crater indicates that what ever hit had a large amount of explosives. Below I have linked to the videos mentioned. All up-loaded July 22-23.

Video with possible jet-sound (the maybe-sound of jet is in the first seconds of the video)
Video with dust-cloud after a hit

Video with large crater

Video with damage to building

Another video came out from Rastan after those linked to above. It has clear sound of jet as a large explosion occurs. There have also started to come out videos from Aleppo with jets being used against the opposition forces.

Video added July 25: with clear sound of jet as bomb detonate. 

* note: I have not tried to verify location or date of these videos, but the second video (with dust-cloud) is from an earlier verified location in Rastan and the last one has two water-tower looking constructions in the background that I think will be verifiable as those in Rastan.

frame from video uploaded to curse thee's YouTube channel on October 4, 2012.

Video added October 7: a 8:50 min video report uploaded October 4, 2012. What I believe to be a Su-22 is taking 2 runs followed by recordings of a heavy artillery bombardment. The stated location is supported (if not confirmed) by the two water towers, visible at 7:15 min.
The souce videos seems to be from a Rastan channel, and this video is the one with the clearest view of the jet (during this particular clip, I did not see objects that I could use to confirm location - you'll have to decide for yourself).
..

* general note (June 25. 2012): unless other is mentioned; all locations and dates of recordings given of videos are those stated by the up-loaders. Also; this is all to the best of my knowledge, and since I'm no authority in this field I try to present my observations in a way that will allow you to use your own judgement. Please do so.


Related posts on this blog:

- M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus

- Hama

- weapons used on Homs
- mortar position, Homs 

Rastan based YouTube channels:
- قناة alrstn
- قناة تنسيقية الرستن||ebnalrstn2
- Rastantwilight

thanks to @brown_Moses for doing a massive job, listing Syrian YouTube channels here.

- any corrections and additions are welcome. You can leave information as a comment at my twitter account...