time line

Intro:

Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

This post is to try to work out the chronology of the attack in Homs on January 11., and is a follow up on the previous post on weapons id's.

The attack killed at least 4 people according to France TV 2  and according to SANA the number of deaths was 9. Among those killed was the French journalist Gilles Jacquier.

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images: to the left, from video by France TV 2 and to the right from Addounia TV

Sources:

In my previous post I looked into some ordnance fragments shown to camera, and believe to have identified them to a reasonable degree.
My main source used to structure the time-line have been this video by pro regime Addounia TV [ WARNING: the images are extremely tough].

The video does not have a linear chronology, therefore in the time line below I have broken it up and am in the process of re-arranging it.

* NB: the video I originally linked to in this section have been taken down. The one linked to now is a little shorter, in lower resolution and without subtitles. Also; this version doesn't have the part with a man - shortly after the attack - showing a weapons-part to the camera, and giving his account of what had happened.

Another source has been the interview with French camera man Christophe Kenck in this video by France Television 2.

Christophe Kenck speaks of 4 mortar hits which I am using as key points:
- explosion 01: about 500 meters from the demonstration
- explosion 02: by the school
- explosion 03: 10 meters away from himself. Wounded him lightly
- explosion 04: at the building where Gilles Jacquier had taken refuge.


Comment:

There are a lot of things in the time line that I have concluded by combining different open sources and which therefore is not definitely confirmed. However in my own mind only two things are really uncertain: There is still something vague about explosion 01, but actually I believe my assumption will be confirmed. And then there is the time and position of either explosion 03 or 04. The fourth explosion that I have marked in the time line could be unrelated to the attack; the movements of camera and people when the sound occurs make me almost certain that it is an explosion, but the sound is much lower than the one marked as explosion 03/04.


The time line:

(corrected January 29 - still some uncertainties)

* NB: the video I originally used for this time-line have been taken down. The one linked to now does not match the minutes given below.


[x] explosion that (I assume) caused the damage on the roof (expl. 01)

- team-GJ leave their van and takes off from demonstration towards the site of the explosion

- distance to site about 250 meter - on foot: about 3 minutes

cam-01 filming (0:00 to 0:32) from where the demonstration was:

- smoke in the distance (not necessarily from explosion 01, but most likely), then starts moving towards it

[x] explosion "by the school" (expl. 02)

cam-03 filming (1:07 to 1:39) on the roof where I assume explosion 01 happened
- documenting damages (it is possible, this was filmed later, but a team was there before explosion 03)

cam-02 filming (1:39 to 2:07) off the roof from a position higher up and to the east of cam-03

- smoke in front of the school

cam-03 filming (2:07 to 2:11) on the roof
- showing cam-02 team

- man showing expended mortar round stem

- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe points to mortar round stem 

[x] explosion in front of the building (expl. 03 or 04) (2:11) - the one we hear - close to international media- I'm leaning towards this being explosion 04. If so, explosion 03 must have hit some distance to the east - where C. Kenck was shortly before.
(but if a mortar had hit less than 100 meters down the road, would they not have filmed it from the roof together with the smoke from explosion 02..?)

cam-03 filming (2:11 to 2:37) off the roof

- roof is wet - diesel - confirms position as same as damaged fuel tank - and that tank was damaged by earlier explosion.
- wounded man on the street - people coming to help

cam-04 filming (2:37 to 4:31) on the street without cuts
- evacuation

- following international media in evacuation area

[x] sound of explosion (4:31) - could be explosion 04 - sounds much lower than the explosion at (2:11). Exact position unknown. If it is explosion 04 then it could have fallen behind the building in the yard.

cam-04 filming (4:31 to 4:49) on the street without cut (and no cut at 4:31)

- following international media in evacuation area
- taxi arrives by bill board (empty - on a general call, I think)
- following international media from evacuation area / cut /

cam-05 filming (0:32 to 1:07) taking over the following of international media after cam-04

- following international media round the corner

- following international media in the stairwell

- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe speaking to international media in stairwell

- international media turn and walk down

cam-04 filming (4:49 to 6:06) on the street without cut

- towards taxi that arrived empty before cut. Now a crowd around. Gilles Jacquier laying on the back seat.

- evacuation

- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe shows a mortar round stem to camera (the same?) 
- international media returns through evacuation at 5:36 area as Gilles Jacquier is driven to hospital in a taxi.

cam-?? (6:06 to 6:11) on the street
- an ambulance passes.

for an aerial covering a larger area; click here

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Update January 26: 
(corrected January 29)

This interview with CNN journalist Nic Robertson gives an idea of the overall time frame.

And the general picture seems to be clear:
- some of the journalists agree to document a demonstration (others return to Damascus)
- while at the demonstration explosion 01 happens
- the media team of Gilles Jacquier walks(?) to the site (other journalists refuse)
- three more mortar rounds fall while the journalists walk to the site
- at least one of the three following mortar rounds hits very close to the first explosion
- the attack ends while killed and wounded people are being evacuated and the media returns towards east.

I have not (yet) tried make detailed calculations of the time of the explosions, and I will not do so unless I manage to eliminate the uncertainty about which explosion is explosion 04. But my estimate is that the four mortars rounds fell within 5 - 7 minutes.

The interview with Nic Robertson, and some of my findings and speculation tend to raise suspicion towards the regime for having arranged the attack. But I'm fare from being able to draw such a conclusion, and this article from Le Figaro weighs heavily in direction of the anti regime forces being responsible.

And an article from l'Hebdo by journalist Patrick Vallélian [in French] gives a first hand account of the day.

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other posts on the Syrian conflict:

- weapons used on Homs

- mortar position, Homs

- air base missille attack

- M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus (Homs on the map)

- any explained knowledge or estimates of intervals and all corrections and suggestions are welcome as comments to this post or here or to my Twitter account.

- also: this is a layman's attempt at extracting information from online material. Nothing more.

weapons id

(latest updated September 6, 2012, except for the plead)

Intro:

The title of this post might appear misleading. But to clarify; the intention when I started this blog (of which this is the first post) was not to start a weapons identifications blog. The idea at the time was to have a platform to present questions that were difficult to handle in 140 characters.

Getting feed-back wasn't as easy as I had imagined, and over time the focus of this blog did turn to mainly focus on bringing information about the weapons, used by the Syrian government army in the present (2012) conflict. But as can be seen, when reading this post, I started with very little knowledge. Therefore please carefully review the observations I present and use your own judgment.
Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).

In this particular case I was seeking help to identify ordnance fragments displayed in TV-footage of an attack in Homs, Syria. This was the attack that - together with an unknown number of local Syrians - killed French journalist Gilles Jacquier. The main motivation for trying to establish the identities of these weapons was, that who-did-it claims - in on-line discussions - were built on an understanding, that a certain weapon had been identified. For some reason I wasn't convinced and decided to examine that basis (intro added 09/06/2012).

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What is this?

By this post I'm trying to identify this supposed-to-be weapons part:

cropped screen shots from an Addounia TV report up-loaded to YouTube (* the version I originally linked to have been removed. This version is in lower resolution, without subtitles, and...without the part relevant to the frames above. But go to 5:43 min in this video instead).

The images above are from 5:43 in this this video  [ WARNING: images are extremely tough to watch ] (* the version I originally linked to have been removed. This version is without subtitles)

The video was taken during and after the attack on a demonstration in the Syrian city Homs that killed 9 people (according to SANA) - one of them being the French journalist Gilles Jacquier.
The camera work was done by Addounia TV a Syrian pro regime channel.

The object I'm seeking to identify looks like aluminium, but could possibly be stainless steel, and the four "wings" can be folded in as indicated on the close up.

From the translation it seems to me that the man showing the object is connecting it to RPGs being fired at the demonstration. A name that sounds like "enegra" is being mentioned, and this is claimed only to be possible to buy from Israel. In this case that would link the suspected attackers with the ultimate enemy, so there is reason to stay sceptical about that.

A rifle-grenade named ENERGA was mentioned by others in relation to this. It's a grenade launched from the muzzle of a rifle using an "adapter". This might have to do with the similarity of the names only, but anyway: it made me think that there might be a possibility that the part in the picture could be from some kind of muzzle-launcher.
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Update Jan 18:

I now consider the object identified:

images sources: Left: from D & B Militaria. Right: cropped frame from an Addounia TV report up-loaded to YouTube.

It is stabilizer fins from an RPG-7 warhead.
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Additional information:
(added Jan 18.)

There are two other occurrences of a men showing weapons parts to the camera. The first time the man's speech is interrupted, but at the second occurrence the persons statement is translated into "this belongs to the killers". The meaning apparently being the anti regime groups who he believes to have carried out the attack.

First occurrence (2.09):

image source: a frame from France 24 report using some of the footage from the Addounia report.

Second occurrence (3.27):

image source: frames from an Addounia TV report up-loaded to YouTube.

In both cases they are holding up a stem of an expended mortar round. From my goggling it seems that the length of the stem, the pattern of the holes and the number and size of the fins correspond with these two quite similar 82 mm mortar rounds:

Image sources: Fare left: from frame from France24 report. Centre left: If you know, please let me know. Centre right: from www.warfare.ru. Fare right: from photo by ColdWarWarrior.

According to what I've found; the grey one to the left is Chinese and the green to the right is Russian. The stem from the video could look a little thicker, but given the quality of the image it is impossible to measure exactly. Anyway with my limited knowledge - and assuming the Chinese and the Russian rounds are licensed models of each other - I find it unlikely that there should be a type of mortar round with a stem that similar that isn't from the same license programme.
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My conclusions (so fare):

The weapons types identified would all be unsurprising to find on both sides of the conflict. And even if I have an idea that the anti-regime side doesn't have a lot for mortars, the weapons do not exclude either of the sides as "suspects".

What seems worth investigating is the reason for the man at 6:30 identifying the RPG-part as Israeli.

Some of the different statements about the attack are collected in this Wiki-post about "the Siege of Homs".

There seems to be conflicting opinions of what kind of weapon was used in the attack: some say it was a mortar attack others that it was an RPG attack. If both types of weapons parts in the linked-to video are actually parts of weapons used in the attack, then the explanation is that it was was both.
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Update Jan 20: positions, chronology and speculations: 
(a series of updates from Jan 21. to Jan 29. have been integrated into this section)

From what I can find:

The chronology of the video from Addounia TV is not 100% linear. Therefore I have made a new post where I attempt to establish a time line of the attack.

Journalist Patrick Vallélian tells that the first explosion happened while the journalists were at the small demonstration (about 250 meters away), and that they were encouraged to go and witness/document the attack.

In this video from France TV 2 I believe to have identified the camera on the shoulder of Christophe Kenck as he starts to move from the demonstration towards the smoke of the first explosion. Christophe Kenck was part of the team of Gilles Jacquier.

Whether it was pro or anti regime forces behind the attack, I still don't have any clear indication.

This article from Le Figaro from Le Figaro [in French] supports the possibility that the attack was a terror attack on either the pro regime neighbourhood or the pro regime demonstration. And I haven't found anything that excludes that possibility - only does the random terror bombardment seem more likely than an attempt at hitting the demonstration.

On the other hand it seems obvious that the regime could have an interest in having the international media witnessing and documenting that the regime was under attack from terrorists. That combined with the unconvincing size of the demonstration opens up for a speculation; that the "purpose" of the demonstration was to bring the media there to witness the attack. Also the amount of regime-media and the apparent focus on documenting the presence of international media could be interpreted as part of such a plan.
Such a maybe-plan might or might not have included hitting again after the media had arrived to the site.

Then there is the man showing an RPG-stabilizer and alluding to Israel being involved or the supplier. With my limited knowledge his statement is absurd - it fits with his RPG claim, but the "only from Israel" seems so obviously false that it ought to be known to be counter-productive (except mentioning Israel seems to be the trick you pull when you don't want people to think). However I can not conclude whether he is someone trying to increase the outrage on his own initiative, if the scene was instructed by others afterwards for the same reason or if it was prepared before the attack.


If my identifications of the mortar rounds are correct it will indicate a mortar like this:

2B14-1 PONDOS 82mm Mortar 

Max firing range (fragmentation mortar bomb), km 4.02
Min firing range, km 0.08
Rate of fire, rds/min 20
Elevation, deg: from 45 to 85
Traverse, deg 8 
Fire pattern:
in range, Epr/Xmax 1/183
in deflection, Epd, m 7
Fragmentation mortar bomb weight, kg 3.1
Weight of weapon, t 0.039
Crew 4
Unit of fire, rds 120

That assumption will place the attackers almost anywhere in the city - except the third hit (hit-03) seemed to have hit very close to the facade of the building, which could rule out the mortar being placed to the south of the site(?)
If the smoke on the other side of the street - at "the school" - was the result of a hit (hit-02) from the same mortar, then I wonder if it isn't too close to the facade for the mortar to be placed to the north of the site(?)

If it turns out the four mortar hits (or in particular hit-01 and hit-02) are seen as forming a line I also wonder if this can be used to indicate the direction from where the mortar was fired: can they be seen as forming a periphery with the mortar at the centre(?) - or would they be more likely to not have fanned out and therefore forming a line that can be extended to the origin of the firing(?) - or can no such "regularity" be expected on either factors(?)
- any answers to those questions about mortars will be appreciated.

I consider the RPG-claim to be false - but if it isn't, the picture will be even more blurred.
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September 6th update: A piece outside the puzzle:

cropped frame at 2:13 min. from video on معرض الحج بشير للقذائف والشظايا الحربية YouTube channel. Uploaded 22/06/2012.
From left: a tail/stem from 120 mm mortar round, a tail/stem from 160 mm mortar round, an ENERGA AT grenade and what looks like one more mortar round stem that has lost the fins.

Back in January when I worked on this post, I was unable to find any useful explanation as to why, the man in the video (top most image) would come up with such an odd (false) name as ENERGA for the RPG warhead stabilizer. But an indication turned up, when I decided to try to identify an unusual looking grenade, seen in a video from late June this year. The video which is from Homs shows a collection of expended ammunition, and the unusual looking grenade is the second from the right in the image above. It was Australian weapons specialist Nic Jenzen-Jones (@RogueAdventurer on Twitter) who - much to my surprise - told me, that what I had presented to him was an ENERGA anti tank rifle grenade.

Compared to the image of a practice model in the Wikipedia, this grenade looks a little different, but after having looked at the few drawings and images, that I am able to find on-line, I'm - as expected - convinced that Jenzen-Jones is right.

In the left side of the image below, two cones, that I believe to match the nose cone of the ENERGA, can be seen. This to me indicates, that it is a weapon that is (or was) present in the conflict, and also that it has been used against the opposition forces/areas. So after all, in some reversed and misplaced way, the claim in the video seems to be a little less fare fetched.

cropped frame at 2:52 min. from video on معرض الحج بشير للقذائف والشظايا الحربية YouTube channel. Uploaded 22/06/2012.

A few comments about the ENERGA: from what I read, it was originally produced in Belgium from some time in the early 1950s and onward. It has since been produced in other countries too as well as being updated. At present a model developed from the ENERGA, called R1M1, is being produced in South Africa, while the production of the original model has stopped.

From following the Syrian conflict during the last year, it is my impression that the government army - quite logically - used the oldest stockpiles first. Therefore, the appearance of what could be a relatively old weapon, back in the first half of 2012, fits well in the overall picture. However I have to mention, that a lot more work would have to be done both to determine the age of the weapon, and to establish for certain, that this ENERGA grenade was fired by the Syrian government army. But I'll have to leave that to others. 

* note: the grenade in the video appears to be an UXO (unexploded ordnance). This means that all the explosives are still inside, which makes it potentially lethal to handle, and to be close to. 
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On New York Times' war correspondent C.J. Chivers' blog, The Gun, you can read an insightful introduction to rifle grenades as a phenomenon. The post has the M31 rifle grenade (the US sucessor of the ENERGA) as starting point. In the post you'll also find a link to a discussion on the International Ammunition Association's forum, that has some in depth knowledge exhange about the ENERGA model (reference added 22/12/2012).


other relevant posts:
- time line  (chronology of the attack studied above)
- weapons used on Homs 
- mortar position, Homs
- The M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus  (Homs on the map)

- any corrections or suggestions are welcome, either as post-comments here or to my Twitter account.