Intro:
Please notice: this is a layman's post. If you read it please don't skip the notes during and at the bottom of the post. Also before you decide what to think of my writings: please read through my latest post (plead added 03/06/2014).
This post is to try to work out the chronology of the attack in Homs on January 11., and is a follow up on the previous post on weapons id's.
The attack killed at least 4 people according to France TV 2 and according to SANA the number of deaths was 9. Among those killed was the French journalist Gilles Jacquier.
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| images: to the left, from video by France TV 2 and to the right from Addounia TV |
Sources:
In my previous post I looked into some ordnance fragments shown to camera, and believe to have identified them to a reasonable degree.
My main source used to structure the time-line have been this video by pro regime Addounia TV [ WARNING: the images are extremely tough].
The video does not have a linear chronology, therefore in the time line below I have broken it up and am in the process of re-arranging it.
* NB: the video I originally linked to in this section have been taken down. The one linked to now is a little shorter, in lower resolution and without subtitles. Also; this version doesn't have the part with a man - shortly after the attack - showing a weapons-part to the camera, and giving his account of what had happened.
Another source has been the interview with French camera man Christophe Kenck in this video by France Television 2.
* NB: the video I originally linked to in this section have been taken down. The one linked to now is a little shorter, in lower resolution and without subtitles. Also; this version doesn't have the part with a man - shortly after the attack - showing a weapons-part to the camera, and giving his account of what had happened.
Another source has been the interview with French camera man Christophe Kenck in this video by France Television 2.
Christophe Kenck speaks of 4 mortar hits which I am using as key points:
- explosion 01: about 500 meters from the demonstration
- explosion 02: by the school
- explosion 03: 10 meters away from himself. Wounded him lightly
- explosion 04: at the building where Gilles Jacquier had taken refuge.
Comment:
There are a lot of things in the time line that I have concluded by combining different open sources and which therefore is not definitely confirmed. However in my own mind only two things are really uncertain: There is still something vague about explosion 01, but actually I believe my assumption will be confirmed. And then there is the time and position of either explosion 03 or 04. The fourth explosion that I have marked in the time line could be unrelated to the attack; the movements of camera and people when the sound occurs make me almost certain that it is an explosion, but the sound is much lower than the one marked as explosion 03/04.
The time line:
(corrected January 29 - still some uncertainties)
* NB: the video I originally used for this time-line have been taken down. The one linked to now does not match the minutes given below.
[x] explosion that (I assume) caused the damage on the roof (expl. 01)
- team-GJ leave their van and takes off from demonstration towards the site of the explosion
* NB: the video I originally used for this time-line have been taken down. The one linked to now does not match the minutes given below.
[x] explosion that (I assume) caused the damage on the roof (expl. 01)
- team-GJ leave their van and takes off from demonstration towards the site of the explosion
- distance to site about 250 meter - on foot: about 3 minutes
cam-01 filming (0:00 to 0:32) from where the demonstration was:
- smoke in the distance (not necessarily from explosion 01, but most likely), then starts moving towards it
[x] explosion "by the school" (expl. 02)
cam-03 filming (1:07 to 1:39) on the roof where I assume explosion 01 happened
- documenting damages (it is possible, this was filmed later, but a team was there before explosion 03)
cam-02 filming (1:39 to 2:07) off the roof from a position higher up and to the east of cam-03
[x] explosion "by the school" (expl. 02)
cam-03 filming (1:07 to 1:39) on the roof where I assume explosion 01 happened
- documenting damages (it is possible, this was filmed later, but a team was there before explosion 03)
cam-02 filming (1:39 to 2:07) off the roof from a position higher up and to the east of cam-03
- smoke in front of the school
cam-03 filming (2:07 to 2:11) on the roof
- showing cam-02 team
- man showing expended mortar round stem
- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe points to mortar round stem
[x] explosion in front of the building (expl. 03 or 04) (2:11) - the one we hear - close to international media- I'm leaning towards this being explosion 04. If so, explosion 03 must have hit some distance to the east - where C. Kenck was shortly before.
(but if a mortar had hit less than 100 meters down the road, would they not have filmed it from the roof together with the smoke from explosion 02..?)
cam-03 filming (2:11 to 2:37) off the roof
[x] explosion in front of the building (expl. 03 or 04) (2:11) - the one we hear - close to international media- I'm leaning towards this being explosion 04. If so, explosion 03 must have hit some distance to the east - where C. Kenck was shortly before.
(but if a mortar had hit less than 100 meters down the road, would they not have filmed it from the roof together with the smoke from explosion 02..?)
cam-03 filming (2:11 to 2:37) off the roof
- roof is wet - diesel - confirms position as same as damaged fuel tank - and that tank was damaged by earlier explosion.
- wounded man on the street - people coming to help
cam-04 filming (2:37 to 4:31) on the street without cuts
- evacuation
- wounded man on the street - people coming to help
cam-04 filming (2:37 to 4:31) on the street without cuts
- evacuation
- following international media in evacuation area
[x] sound of explosion (4:31) - could be explosion 04 - sounds much lower than the explosion at (2:11). Exact position unknown. If it is explosion 04 then it could have fallen behind the building in the yard.
cam-04 filming (4:31 to 4:49) on the street without cut (and no cut at 4:31)
cam-04 filming (4:31 to 4:49) on the street without cut (and no cut at 4:31)
- following international media in evacuation area
- taxi arrives by bill board (empty - on a general call, I think)
- following international media from evacuation area / cut /
cam-05 filming (0:32 to 1:07) taking over the following of international media after cam-04
- taxi arrives by bill board (empty - on a general call, I think)
- following international media from evacuation area / cut /
cam-05 filming (0:32 to 1:07) taking over the following of international media after cam-04
- following international media round the corner
- following international media in the stairwell
- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe speaking to international media in stairwell
- international media turn and walk down
cam-04 filming (4:49 to 6:06) on the street without cut
cam-04 filming (4:49 to 6:06) on the street without cut
- towards taxi that arrived empty before cut. Now a crowd around. Gilles Jacquier laying on the back seat.
- evacuation
- man with dark sleeve with blue stripe shows a mortar round stem to camera (the same?)
- international media returns through evacuation at 5:36 area as Gilles Jacquier is driven to hospital in a taxi.
cam-?? (6:06 to 6:11) on the street
- an ambulance passes.
- international media returns through evacuation at 5:36 area as Gilles Jacquier is driven to hospital in a taxi.
cam-?? (6:06 to 6:11) on the street
- an ambulance passes.
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| for an aerial covering a larger area; click here |
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Update January 26:
(corrected January 29)
This interview with CNN journalist Nic Robertson gives an idea of the overall time frame.
And the general picture seems to be clear:
- some of the journalists agree to document a demonstration (others return to Damascus)
- while at the demonstration explosion 01 happens
- the media team of Gilles Jacquier walks(?) to the site (other journalists refuse)
- three more mortar rounds fall while the journalists walk to the site
- at least one of the three following mortar rounds hits very close to the first explosion
- the attack ends while killed and wounded people are being evacuated and the media returns towards east.
I have not (yet) tried make detailed calculations of the time of the explosions, and I will not do so unless I manage to eliminate the uncertainty about which explosion is explosion 04. But my estimate is that the four mortars rounds fell within 5 - 7 minutes.
Update January 26:
(corrected January 29)
This interview with CNN journalist Nic Robertson gives an idea of the overall time frame.
And the general picture seems to be clear:
- some of the journalists agree to document a demonstration (others return to Damascus)
- while at the demonstration explosion 01 happens
- the media team of Gilles Jacquier walks(?) to the site (other journalists refuse)
- three more mortar rounds fall while the journalists walk to the site
- at least one of the three following mortar rounds hits very close to the first explosion
- the attack ends while killed and wounded people are being evacuated and the media returns towards east.
I have not (yet) tried make detailed calculations of the time of the explosions, and I will not do so unless I manage to eliminate the uncertainty about which explosion is explosion 04. But my estimate is that the four mortars rounds fell within 5 - 7 minutes.
The interview with Nic Robertson, and some of my findings and speculation tend to raise suspicion towards the regime for having arranged the attack. But I'm fare from being able to draw such a conclusion, and this article from Le Figaro weighs heavily in direction of the anti regime forces being responsible.
And an article from l'Hebdo by journalist Patrick Vallélian [in French] gives a first hand account of the day.
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other posts on the Syrian conflict:
- M5 highway, Aleppo - Damascus (Homs on the map)
- any explained knowledge or estimates of intervals and all corrections and suggestions are welcome as comments to this post or here or to my Twitter account.
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